Premier League: How teams will be separated if level on points and goal difference and why play-off is possible
8 April 2024, 07:45 | Updated: 8 April 2024, 11:30
The Premier League title race is on a knife edge, with Arsenal and Liverpool level at the top of the table and Manchester City just one point behind them with seven games to play.
Liverpool missed the chance to reclaim top spot when they were held to a 2-2 draw at Manchester United on Sunday after Arsenal's win at Brighton the day before, while Man City kept up the pace with a 4-2 victory at Crystal Palace this weekend.
There is hardly margin for error now for these sides in the run-in.
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But with the battle for the crown so close, there is the possibility two or even all three of these sides could finish the season level on points. What would happen then?
Incredibly, in one instance there would be a play-off to decide who wins the Premier League...
How we could get a Premier League title play-off decider
Arsenal are top of the league on goal difference and they have several other factors in their favour, should they be level with Liverpool and/or Manchester City at the end of the season.
However, if Liverpool and Manchester City get ahead of the Gunners and finish level on points, goal difference and goals scored then a Premier League title play-off decider between them will determine the champions.
Imagine that!
The first ever Premier League play-off game of this kind would be required because Liverpool and Manchester City drew their two meetings 1-1 this season and the remaining deciding factors in where teams rank when they're level on points, goal difference and goals scored are points won in head-to-head games between the sides and most away goals scored in head-to-head meetings.
Liverpool and City are all square on those final two separators, so a one-off match would be required.
Where would the play-off take place?
One would assume such a game would take place at Wembley, the home of football. But the Premier League handbook fails to go into that detail. Perhaps because no one anticipated we would ever get to the point whereby, after 38 league games across a whole season, two teams could not be separated.
The decision over neutral location, as stipulated by the rulebook, would be determined by the Premier League board.
That leaves the possibility - a frightening one for Manchester United fans - that a Premier League title play-off between City and Liverpool could take place at Old Trafford, with both teams based in the north-west.
When would the play-off happen?
This could be a real dilemma for the organisers. The Premier League finishes on Sunday May 19. Liverpool could then be involved in the Europa League final on Wednesday May 22. Manchester City could be involved in the FA Cup final the following weekend, with that scheduled for Saturday May 25. And the weekend after that is the Champions League final on Saturday June 1, when City will be hoping to retain their crown. England are then due to play a Euro 2024 warm-up international on June 3.
Could a Premier League play-off be squeezed in between the FA Cup final and Champions League final?
It would be some way for Jurgen Klopp's tenure as Liverpool manager to come to an end!
Why it's advantage Arsenal if they're in the mix...
The thought of a Premier League play-off is mouthwatering, but if Arsenal finish level on points at the top they will be crowned champions.
Mikel Arteta's men are in a great position from that perspective.
After points won, the next decider in the Premier League standings is goal difference.
Currently that is good news for Arsenal, who have a nine-goal advantage on Liverpool and are +11 on Man City.
If Liverpool and/or City close that difference by the end of the season and finish level on points with the Gunners the next separator will be goals scored.
Again, Arsenal lead the way in that metric right now - they have scored 75 goals this season, three more than Liverpool and four more than Man City.
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If that gap is bridged and all three sides finish level on points, goal difference and goals scored they will then be judged on points won in head-to-head games between them.
Once again Arsenal would come out on top. They have a win and draw against both Liverpool and Man City, while Liverpool and City drew their two meetings with each other.
With the top three having now played all their matches against each other, City and Liverpool cannot topple Arsenal in that metric.
The final decider which could have a big say in the relegation battle...
With these separators applying throughout the table and the relegation battle seeing Nottingham Forest above Luton on goal difference only - and with those sides having drawn their two match-ups this season - it's worth knowing the final decisive factor.
That is which team has the most away goals in the head-to-head meetings.
That would be good news for Luton, who scored twice at Nottingham Forest - although Forest do currently hold the edge on goal difference. Luton have scored five more goals if they can close that gap.
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(c) Sky Sports 2024: Premier League: How teams will be separated if level on points and goal difference and why play-off is possible
