Spurs vs Manchester United predictions & best bets: Back fouls in edgy Europa League final
18 May 2025, 10:34 | Updated: 21 May 2025, 20:30
Our betting expert Jones Knows previews the Europa League final and outlines where the value lies as Spurs and Manchester United look to save their seasons.
Spurs vs Manchester United, Europa League final, Wednesday 8pm
This is a beautifully grotesque final. Both teams are balancing on the highwire with no safety net below them.
We can get carried away with overdramatising the outcomes of football matches but this one truly is huge, especially for Tottenham, who have one game to decide whether it's been their best or worst season for many years. It's a ridiculous situation, really.
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Manchester United are slight favourites with Sky Bet at 4/5 to lift the trophy with Spurs at 10/11. The 90-minute odds have United at 7/4 and Spurs at 29/20.
It's a 50-50 spin of the Roulette wheel. White or red. Heads or tails.
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I'm very confused about this game from a betting perspective.
These two teams have been completely different in the Europa League compared to their Premier League form. And usually you'd put more weight in the domestic form to gauge a true ability of a team, especially in this spot as this is an all-Premier League final. But I'm very torn.
United can't score in the Premier League, averaging just 1.14 goals per 90 minutes and have scored just five goals in their last eight games. But look at their Europa League form.
They have averaged 2.5 goals per game this season, scoring a whopping 19 goals in their six games with Real Sociedad, Lyon and Athletic Club in the knockouts.
And then we have Spurs, who are equally as confusing to analyse. As they are a completely different team to their overall form of this Premier League season when their first-choice back five plays under Ange Postecoglou. The difference is simply huge.
When Guglielmo Vicario, Pedro Porro, Micky van de Ven, Cristian Romero and Destiny Udogie all play under Postecoglou, they have won 18 of those 30 games, losing just six times.
If you were converting that to points per game - that's two per game. If you translate that over the course of a Premier League season of 38 games, you get 76 points, which would be enough to finish a clear second in the Premier League this season. There is a really good side lurking there.
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It's a game where backing teams both not to win is actually quite attractive, so the draw in 90 minutes at 23/10 with Sky Bet is the way to play the outright market.
Three of the last four Europa League finals have ended in a stalemate. It's a result which is always a runner in finals of this nature where two big clubs meet with lots on the line.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Manchester United to win on penalties)
Much better opportunities are found in the props market for Wednesday's clash in Bilbao, notably in the fouls markets.
The Europa League final has a rich tradition of being a foul-heavy occasion - it makes sense with such riches on the line.
The last 15 Europa League finals have averaged 31.2 fouls per 90 minutes.
That's a huge number.
For context, Premier League matches have averaged 22.5 fouls per 90 this season, so the added jeopardy of a final using those numbers, there could be almost 10 more fouls in this type of game that a run-of-the-mill Premier League game. And when you throw in so much being on the line for these clubs and how evenly matched they are in the betting, I think this game could be very foul-heavy and potentially go way above the number the market is expecting.
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